Kirk Maps How Blue States May Rewrite Assault Weapon Bans

William Kirk of Washington Gun Law lays out how he expects blue states to rewrite assault weapon bans so they survive a Supreme Court loss, rather than give up on banning semi-automatic rifles altogether.

Snapshot

Kirk walks through the three ways legislatures have defined "assault weapons" and argues that with two of those methods facing a Supreme Court challenge this term, states with full Democratic control are likely to pivot to new definitions to keep bans alive regardless of the outcome.

Key points

• Three definitions exist: Kirk identifies make-and-model bans, external feature bans, and internal "go-safe" bans based on a gun's operating mechanism, noting only the first two are currently used in any state law.
• Both current methods are in legal jeopardy: he points out that Cook County, Illinois and Connecticut both used make-and-model and external feature bans, and both are at issue in the Veramontes and Grant cases now before the Supreme Court, with a ruling expected around mid-2027.
• The untested workaround: if those two approaches fall, Kirk says the "go-safe" internal mechanism ban, tried unsuccessfully at the federal level and in New Mexico, becomes the only legally untested option left standing.
• A new formula in the wings: Kirk flags "muzzle energy per minute," a measurement pushed in an amicus brief by a group called CRIME, which he calls a fabricated metric not used in real ballistics, designed to make rifles sound more dangerous to courts.
• Six states to watch: Kirk says how these newly all-blue states choose to define banned firearms this session will signal where the next generation of bans is headed.

Quick take

Kirk's breakdown is useful less for predicting a specific bill and more for giving viewers a framework to spot what lawmakers are doing when a new ban drops, whether it's old language repackaged or something invented from scratch.

Watch the full video: Washington Gun Law